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Disappearance Of The Petrol Car


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Interesting study out of Stanford University which predicts petrol cars will no longer be within 8 years (I've seen similar timelines in other articles etc).  I never thought anything of it until reading this where they are talking about the disappearance of petrol stations etc.

 

http://inhabitat.com/stanford-study-says-fossil-fueled-cars-will-vanish-in-8-years-as-big-oil-collapses/

 

Whilst 8 years seems fast, I now realise that my dreams of retiring in 30 years and driving around in the Z may not be practical, unless the quality of electric conversion items improves a lot over what is currently available!  Even then the same report predicts that human controlled cars will eventually be banned as autonomous cars have already been proven to be better drivers than humans. Our zeds may become track only play things with modern hearts that remove part of why we love them in the first place....... Feeling very conflicted because I do believe the world should be moving away from fossil fuels but I still want to drive my zed with a petrol engine ha ha ha.

 

You only need to look at projects like the recent successful test flight of an electric flying car (though they call it a jet: https://lilium.com/)to see that these things are no longer pipe dreams and they are rapidly becoming a reality!  

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Interestingly enough there were a couple of things recently that I recall seeing first on Beyond 2000.  Back when I had a boy crush on Amanda Keller but that's another story ........

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I'm actually looking forward to it, (oil being phased out) and electric replacing it. For what it's worth I still think classic cars will hold value and nostalgia for folks like us. I can imagine we'll have to pay a carbon tax to use these cars and as a result may be confined to track days or similar? But I'm not sure the tipping point is that close.

 

It's kind of like Cloud Storage, not long ago you paid a fortune for disk space, now it's cheap as chips.

 

Batteries will go that way and their range will extend "Moore's law" and all that.

 

As for engine swaps, don't worry it may be electric but we can make it sound like an L-series at 10,000 rpm.

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Along the same lines as the BMW I8 hybrid that has a digital speaker in the exhaust pipe because the 1.3litre engine does not make the right noise for a supercar buyer !

 

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Very interesting topic, just wondering where is the report that calls out the 8 year part? The link doesn't directly call it out. Not doubting I'd just like to read it.

 

I recall seeing a graph on the exponential growth of iPhone sales, electric cars will follow suit as they get cheaper. I'll see if I can find a graph of the current growth and the predictions around it. Being able to pick different engines sounds pretty cool

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iPhones provide services that were not available before in the single compact device so they are quite different to electric cars which really provide nothing new as far as a service goes. Until a single battery charge lasts as long as a tank of petrol or until they are a lot cheaper there is nothing much practically to recommend them. Cost and convenience are the two big ones, as for a car which drives itself not sure about that one, why would you want one and what happens when something goes wrong?

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My passions are classic cars, yacht racing and quality horses. Am I out of touch with modern reality? Maybe I was just born 20 years too late.

One of my work colleagues and I were only discussing the "electric self driving car" thing yesterday. I for one hate the idea of technology creating "dumb ass cant be bothered to drive properly and safely" generation. Personally I think we currently live in a wonderful time, where my elk are satisfied being able to still fully enjoy the analogue era, while there is also real excitement for those into new age technology indulgence.

 

I am sure self drive is around the corner, but I personally think that corner is a big one. Look at air travel, lets be honest nothing has really changed in 40 odd years. As for electric cars, it will all come down to what the market wants, not what is driven by government legislation. Australia, given our passions for outdoor activities, still gets excited by grunty type stuff I am sure many markets though that are adopting technology and instant communication at a galactic rate, Asia, India, and to some extent Europe could not care one bit about loosing the internal combustion engine. I agree with Gav that battery life, storage capacity, efficient delivery/transmission of power will improve expediently while price drops at a similar rate. Lets face it, hybrid is where all the hype is these days when it comes to super cars. Electric driven propulsion just makes so much sense. So while the electric car era is knocking on our door I will choice to, for now at least, admire the engineering and development from the side lines while enjoying my 20th century passions in all of their analogue glory. 

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Interestingly enough there were a couple of things recently that I recall seeing first on Beyond 2000.  Back when I had a boy crush on Amanda Keller but that's another story ........

 

Amanda Keller!!!! Wash your mouth out and get your eyes checked mate!!!  Beyond 2000 was a great show.  I cant see the electric car phenomenon completely taking over so soon, Think about the absolute financial disaster to state run economies like the USA, Russia, the Middle Eastern nations etc to name a few. So many products that we use daily are oil or petroleum based. It will eventally happen, but 8 years.... nah I'd say probably 50.

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I got my first ride in a Tesla the other week on the way to the airport (45 mins) in San Francisco. It was my Uber ride, and I have to say I'm impressed with the Tesla, what a car! The owner was doing Uber to help pay off the car and said he charges the car at home using solar power so he doesn't spend a cent on fuel of any kind. He told me it's very little maintenance.

 

He told me that he was a big car guy (so of course we got along just fine), said he had a Corvette ZR1 supercharged 700HP before that. Said it drank like a sailor and that he got the Tesla because it was faster and more cost effective to run. He and his wife are so impressed they bought a second Tesla for her!

 

Pretty sure it was a Model S P85. So not even the P90D or the P100D.

 

He also told me he had a Toyota Supra he just recently sold and didn't like the way it drove. I wonder if he was spoilt by the Tesla though?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=do23oQaRMeo

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This is pretty cool. Retrofitting an electric motor, connected via a belt drive to the crank on your existing motor to turn your car into a hybrid. Looks like a conversion that could be taken back to stock down the track if you so wished. Guessing though you would need to go to efi so that the controller works in with the ems:

 

http://echargersystem.com

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Toyota made an electric 2000GT a while back.

 

http://blog.toyota.co.uk/we-drive-the-toyota-2000gt-solar-electric-vehicle

 

 I for one hate the idea of technology creating "dumb ass cant be bothered to drive properly and safely" generation. 

 

I think that generation has already arrived. I see them most days, too busy on their smart phones every stop light and in peak hour stop start traffic on the freeways.

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Former Vice President of General Motors predicting cars will have gone the way of horse drawn transport in 20 years time:

 

http://www.autonews.com/article/20171105/INDUSTRY_REDESIGNED/171109944/bob-lutz%3a-kiss-the-good-times-goodbye

 

Seen a number of people predicting similar recently, that autonomous vehicles as a service will replace car ownership and that human driven cars will be banned from roads due to computers being able to make consistently safer decisions.  Interesting stat I saw somewhere that every documented accident involving an autonomous vehicle on public roads so far has been the fault of a human either at the wheel of the autonomous vehicle, or a human driving another vehicle.

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There is no chance cars will disappear as the preferred mode of transport. I was in one of the wealthiest areas of Sydney yesterday and almost half the women I saw entering or alighting from cars were wearing torn jeans. They obviously preferred having high-end European cars than buying new clothes.

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There is no chance cars will disappear as the preferred mode of transport. I was in one of the wealthiest areas of Sydney yesterday and almost half the women I saw entering or alighting from car were wearing torn jeans. They obviously obviously preferred having high-end European cars than buying new clothes.

 

My heart goes out to people who are forced to make those sorts of choices ha ha ha

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Somewhat related..

http://flatsixes.com/porsche-culture/humor/study-shows-women-find-men-drive-porsches-attractive/

 

I was actually trying to find articles that suggest some people will live in abject poverty just to continue to be able to maintain certain cars. I've heard this quoted before about older style Porsche's and single men living in almost empty apartments because their most important possession is their car.

 

Can't seem to find such articles however.

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I like the contrast this week - Porsche drivers are attractive and Datsun drivers have weirdbeards.

 

I've had 2 people who thought my Z was an old Porker this week (and 1 who thought it was a Corvette) so maybe we can have a foot in each camp.

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Yes times are changing without a doubt

 

Good to beat back the rich oil barons who spend money with very little care about the average-joe and play their little stop and go strategies to force the price up of oil.

 

Governments to TAX tyres massively moving forward could be a interesting one with e-cars becoming more in vogue  (maybe we should stock up now on tyres)  I wonder if tyres will become more expensive just in-time for Christmas?? Apologies for my cynicism.

 

Honda is not far off a working 80% recharge in 15min 250km range - that starting to get more like it.

 

There will be some trade off on the crash stakes as medium knocks to the chassis on e-car will damage the chassis floor plan where the batterys live making it a throw away they say -  but with cars driving themselves they may become impossible to crash.

 

Tesla says the next big thing is Electric Jet engines powering transcontinental planes and Vertical Lift planes ruining electric motors - times are really changing fast- if the electric Jet engine comes about commercially that will really will be a change to our dependence on the fire juice.

 

I think its sort of good for the World in general the electric car but they are not super green yet, the batteries and where the power comes from not so green most of the time - but no fumes out the exhaust has to be a step in the right direction. If the electricity got the car without the need for a battery they would be so much better.

 

I like my Z its raw and direct and you got to drive it, tame it, work with it - I not would change for it for a Tesla  or any other e car. 

 

 

 

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Im on the fence about autonomous cars.
I love having the freedom to go out for a drive and be in control, but lately after riding in the car with the wife driving, i would buy her an autonomous car in a heartbeat.
The whole green thing is a bit of a myth though, while there is no tailpipe emission there is still powerplant emissions. While in theory a large scale powerplant is a lot more eficcient at generating power vs the environmental output, its still generating a similar level of emissions, now just localised to wherever the poweplant is.
I vaugely recall seeing a sensible argument to Britian's comment about making all cars electric in the next 20 years, the comment was that while it was an excellent proposal they hadn't considered that to supply that large power demand they would need to build 20 new coal fire plants, at something like 15 million per plant.
There is also obviously the environmental impact of manufacturing the batteries in particular, especially when you consider that lithium is a fairly rare element, with a huge depost currently located in Bolivia.

Think about how rich the middle east got off oil, now think about that money in the hands of a corrupt Bolivian dictatorship.

Electric jet engines are an exciting prospect and would most defintiely bring in the next era of air travel, but the required power output vs the weight moved to be airborne is in my opinion still a fair way off.

For the budding entrepreneur however, getting in on the ground floor of a private EV shuttle service would be a literal gold mine for a very long time to come.
Imagine owning a fleet of 500+ private taxi's before everyone sees the game and the govt. starts to legislate the whole mess.

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