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Classic car bubble

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https://www.autoclassics.com/posts/news/ferris-bueller-ferrari-replica-for-sale

https://www.mecum.com/lots/CA0818-336645/1985-modena-gt-spyder-california/

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Mecum Auctions to sell Ferris Bueller's Ferrari 250 GT Replica
One of two Ferrari 250 GT California replicas made for filming 1986 film classic Ferris Bueller's Day Off is up for sale with Mecum Auctions on August 25

Why is the Modena so revered?
Unlike the majority of Ferrari California replicas stalking the 1980s, the Modena wasn’t based on Datsun’s 240Z. It was instead a bespoke car from the ground up, featuring a rectangular steel tube frame designed by Indy car maker Bob Webb.

I always wondered if there was a 240z underneath... now we know!

fae8d8b9916bb7abcb701207a579a02a2000c28f

However the Vanilla Sky Ferrari is definitely based on a 240z.

 

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Trademe.co.nz newsletter I received today.

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Greetings to the faithful, 

Have you noticed the phenomenal value of cars that were common as mud when you were young? A Mazda RX7 S3 Turbo recently sold on the site for $38k. Holden Toranas regularly turn over north of $60k, and the median price of pre 1980 Volkswagen Kombi is now hovering around $45k. And don't even think about trying to pick up a Alfa Romeo GTV 105! 

It's all very serious dosh for cars you could could have picked up for less than $10k not so long ago. Dave Winsborough, an iconoclastic psychologist mate, tells me that it's driven by 40 somethings buying what they emotionally connected with when they were teenagers. I suspect it's equally driven by a desire to have a cool Sunday driver that's likely to deliver a more stable return than the sharemarket! 

It's far too late to try to pick up an RS2000 Escort or 265 Charger at a discounted price, however, it's interesting to speculate what there is out there that is still affordable but might ratchet up in value over the next decade. 

This month in MOD's Motors I try to zero in on a few modern classics that it might be worthwhile picking up, and putting away for a few years; plus all the regular features, musical garbage from the faithful, and a cool classic Porsche race car reader's ride. Let's get into it. 

 

Screen Shot 2018-07-31 at 3.26.09 PM.png

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@gav240z Bro please dont depress me. I remember I had the chance to pick up a MINT Holden Monaro for 3k with a 350 big block, and my Dad talked me out of it. 

I still have deep memories but luckily I still got my 72 HQ Statesman. Needs some body work though, probably after the S30. 

Ohh yeah and I have been putting it on him ever since haha

IMG_20170513_131628.jpg

IMG_20170513_131652.jpg

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I watched this video a little while ago, and don't really understand his point.

Special editions of contemporary cars are far from classic, maybe future classics at best. A glut of such cars isn't going to affect cars that are already classics.

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My understanding of Limited Availability means basic supply and demand. There will always be a demand for classic cars regardless of the model only due to different people liking and wanting different cars. Not everyone thinks of buying a classic car as a investment but there are the few who are chased up and would buy a classic for investment. 

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I don't think Ferrari's like this are in a bubble. I think there will always be demand at the top end.

However I love the story. Thought this was the best place for sharing it.

https://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/-2000-piece-of-junk-tipped-to-sell-for-10-million-119183

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17 hours ago, gav240z said:

I don't think Ferrari's like this are in a bubble. I think there will always be demand at the top end.

However I love the story. Thought this was the best place for sharing it.

https://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/-2000-piece-of-junk-tipped-to-sell-for-10-million-119183

Looks to be the same car as in this Petrolicous video, it is a very cool story! 

 

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TOP OF THE MARKET FOR ZS- I'm calling it

I reckon its plateaud for the moment and here's my rationale, split into 2 parts

NISSAN

1. Nissan's absolutely disgraceful performance with the current Z series. This is an ageing car, the sales  are abysmal world-wide and the roadmap is not clear, with Nissan now vacillating for years what to do with this segment, all the while MX-5 and Toyota 86 eat up the 2 seater segment. I visited my local dealer to buy some hinge pins and even he has fessed up that the Z has been sitting in the showroom for months and generated very low traffic

2. Failure of the Infiniti brand worlwide. What could have been a Lexus style winner is a fizzler - worldwide

3. The brother "halo car" GTR is also a 15 year old design and getting older

4. Now for the final disgrace, have a look at what Nissan is doing with the newly revives Datsun brand in India

https://www.datsun.co.in/?&utm_campaign=datsunoctgeneric2018&cid=psm_datsunoctgeneric2018_awareness_google_branddatsun&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIxveKlaeJ3gIVFODICh1HJAFkEAAYASAAEgIN1PD_BwE

Its pitched at a discount, below Suzuki level

Yeah. that's a really aspirational brand !!!

SUPPLY

1. Supply

Plenty to choose from and since the cars are not getting wrecked anymore, staying steady

2. Competition

'60s Alfas ( I think they're called 105 GTVs) are riding the brand revival wave from Alfa  ( and Ferrari by reflection) and have now passed the Zs. Not arguing they;re a better car, but the brand drives the price

IN SUMMARY

As a Z owner, I get the point about the car looks, historical significance and performance, but I reckon its the peak

The only thing that would turn this around is the Nissan (of course now part-owned by Renault) getting their finger out and doing something to impress the market as a brand and Z as a label

DISCLAIMER: The argument applies to 100% factory-issued 240z. The "modded' cars always have their place

 

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Aircobra, whilst these thoughts are probably correct regarding the current Zed, I cant see how this has any bearing on how much money someone may or may not want to spend on a forty year old Datsun. I predict the value of 240z's to keep on rising as long as the price of old Porsches Alfa's etc keep rising. The older the 240 gets the more people start to notice just what an outstanding sportscar it is and that there is nothing else out there in that price range that can compare to it.

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I think the global economy is in for a bumpy ride in general and the local economy ain't looking so good either... Hence a fall in prices is not impossible, but the difference between say the housing market and classic car market is that there is less leverage involved in the classic car market (at least S30Z's). Banks simply don't give out loans on classic cars the same as they do for houses.

When the Edward Lee's 240z was for sale at Gosford Car Museum, I inquired about taking out a loan on the car, just to see what interest rates would apply etc.. I don't recall the exact rate but it just wasn't worth it. It was very high. Therefore I think what drives the price of classic cars is what people can afford to pay for them (in terms of cash available). However the broker did tell me if I had a property as collateral I could put up agains the loan for the car I might get a better rate and more favorable loan conditions. So I guess if the punters have been doing that, it could have an impact?

The bottom line is all asset markets are connected in some way, a fall in 1 means people have less money to put into others.

Part of the reason I've bought so many classic cars is to move my money out of banks, as I'm genuinely worried about a haircut on cash depositors. I may be worried about nothing but it has happened in other places and could happen here also. I wonder if other "investors" will see something like classic cars as a safe haven away from stocks, bonds, cash deposits etc.. going forward or try to liquidate to free up capital in the event of a financial crisis?

So in the short term I see a potential fall in classic car prices, and if you're forced to sell it may be a time to pick up bargains.

I bought my FD RX-7 in 2010 in Ireland, right smack in the middle of the financial crisis over there. I got it for 5000 euro's. Nobody was buying these cars at the time. Now the same car would cost 20,000 euro after the economy recovered. So I guess it's like any other asset really.. for those wanting to buy in, soon may be a good chance.

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While I agree that it is probably not worth $122k, it is definitely worth more than $55k in today's market, well depending on the condition. Have a look at these three that sold at the Shannon's auction in July:
https://www.shannons.com.au/auctions/2018-shannons-melbourne-winter-classic-auction/

91553926_ScreenShot2018-10-16at11_09_44AM.thumb.png.be1a9a0b1501a96cb1501aa129cc908e.png

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7 minutes ago, OdinZ said:

While I agree that it is probably not worth $122k, it is definitely worth more than $55k in today's market, well depending on the condition. Have a look at these three that sold at the Shannon's auction in July:
https://www.shannons.com.au/auctions/2018-shannons-melbourne-winter-classic-auction/

91553926_ScreenShot2018-10-16at11_09_44AM.thumb.png.be1a9a0b1501a96cb1501aa129cc908e.png

Yeah I definitely agree on the condition and these look really clean for the price they sold. But I agree not worth $122k. 

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1. in regard to the porsche comment, only a subset of their range is worth any money, which is the aircooled RS-spec cars and the 356s ( although I think these have now peaked)

Boxters, Cayne, 944,928s can all be had for chump money. Some ( but not me)  would say a bargain

2. agree that the Z cars prices are in the context of the overall vintage market and certainly not punting on that segment as a whole

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50 minutes ago, JDM-TOY said:

Yeah I definitely agree on the condition and these look really clean for the price they sold. But I agree not worth $122k. 

Not sure if you saw number 8 of 100, but here it is:

https://www.carsales.com.au/private/details/Nissan-Skyline-1991/SSE-AD-5656315/?Cr=0

Edit: Make sure you are sitting down when you look at the price!

Edited by OdinZ

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R32 GTRs have always been legendary cars, now approaching historic plate status (in fact 1991 would be). So that may be a factor, given their racing pedigree and cars like the GTHO Phase III being an Ex-Bathurst winner but now fetching over $1M, I'd say some punters are speculating on similar values of R32 GTR's in future. Also keep in mind that the R32 GTR new price would have been close to $100k. I know my FD RX-7 when delivered new was an $80k car and the SP (Bathurst Homologation specials) were in excess of $100k AUD. At a time when the median house price was ~$250k in Melbourne.

Bottom line is, it helps to look at these things in context, but again limited supply of good cars and not many "originals" means folks will pay a Premium for a very practical classic car.

Also keep in mind the R32 GTR was a revolutionary car with all it's computer controls around the 4WD system at the time.

17 minutes ago, aircobra said:

Boxters, Cayne, 944,928s can all be had for chump money. Some ( but not me)  would say a bargain

944's have doubled in value in the last few years, admittedly rising from a very low base price. 928s are similar. I would still say they are chump change, given what a 928 costs in 1979 and was viewed as a very advanced car for that time period. The bodies also didn't rust badly like other cars. Perhaps helping them survive?

In my opinion so long as central banks persist with printing money and keeping interest rates low you'll see inflation in assets continue. That does appear to be somewhat reversing at the moment, but the costs of restoration will always be high, given the cost of labour inputs required etc.. So good cars will always hold value in my opinion.

If I had $100k burning a hole in my pocket would I buy a BNR32 GTR and stash it away? Absolutely. I've missed the boat sadly, same with SP RX-7's. Can't own them all...

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and the point I was making on the brand is that "oldies" from Jaguar and Ferrari area all propped by existing halos on that brand and the fact they continue to be premium and current brands at this point

Not so for Datsun

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don;t know much about gtrs, but i do know that ferrrari, aston and jag charge 2-4 times for a car with the same or worse specs

but coming back to the z, i see in the press is saying oct'19 (?) for a reveal on the next Z.

that could give Z values a boost, but it all depends on how good or a bad job nissan does. if they stick with the current "prop from a transformer movie" look - not likely

jag, for example, did a fab job with the f-type 3 years ago

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in regards to the porshe $s, it seems to be that

1. 924/4 was always a poverty special and still doesn't stand out. 0-100 its slower then a stock Z. Why bother? I actually owned a 924 way back and its VW van engine, complete with vw badges always made me laugh

2. 928 belongs to the "big engine grand touerer" class, which is a dead segment - just ask SUPRA, jaguar xjs and Subaru SVX owners, although clearly a supercar back in the day. The other factor is that it is a tempramental and complicated car, at least compared to the Z. The older they get, the more true it becomes. Have a look at one of the 928 engine rebuilds on youtube and you'll get weak knees and I would say a pro-rebuilt stock motor, not even at the dealer is a 20k proposition

3. So unsuprisingly that leaves the 911a as a "back to basics", compact  machine with a decent race history, which is worth the $$$s

That's just my take on it, ther'll be some porsche guy on this forum who may have a better analysis on that brand

and if that person has a 69-72 stock, it would be a fun race around the curves just to see how it would stack up against a z of the era. Until they pimped up the capacity in, I think, '73 it would be neck to neck

 

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Don't get me started on Nissan and their failure to capitalise on the success of the S30, particularly their failure to offer a premium performance version and circuit racing support of each model. The 370Z is just a continuing example of that failure, always behind in performance, even their NISMO attempt is nothing much. In the US there is premium support for Zed prices in the form of various historic race cars that bring good money, nothing like that here because Nissan never laid the groundwork. Oh and as well as certain GTR's bringing good money here apparently good S chassis cars are doing well too.

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I think we should send the above feedback from true S30 enthusiasts to Nissan. Im very disappointed at Dutsun in India, disgusted. 

I owned a 2000 N15 SSS pulsar from Nissan brand new and had it for 13 years. My passion for the nissan car fell apart when the replaced the Pulsar with the Tiida. Fuck me, what a shambles the Tiida was and from this stupid decision Nissan went down hill. 

I was always in the hopes that Nissan would release a N16 Pulsar GTI-R to compete with Subaru WRX and Mitsubishi EVO but nothing and now "apparently " the 400Z will be a all wheel drive V6 twin turbo.

But Scratcherrrrr!

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