Classic car bubble

[gilltech]

 

 

Demand is probably falling as the people who grew up with these cars are getting too old to drive/are no longer around.

Maybe true in part, although many of us are only in our sixties (!!!) (not quite dead yet). I think the effects of the GFC are still being felt by many people, myself included; after a rough time during the GFC I'm more cautious now money-wise than before so prefer to play with less expensive toys.

[gav240z]

This is a really long presentation but in the context of EV disruption I wonder what will happen to the humble gasoline car?

 

 

I wonder if there will be a drop in Interest, sort of like when records were replaced by CD players, but then Records came back as a sort of audiophile interest with a niche market that still prefers it over CD/Digital?

[andyk_79]

This is an interesting one.  I went to a big machinery show at the weekend and marvelled at some of the steam powered machinery still out there that people have put a massive amount of effort into maintaining and restoring.  I suspect though that the still functioning steam powered stuff out there is a ridiculously tiny percentage of what may have existed when steam was king. Steam is probably the closest parallel we can draw with one important difference - as far as I know steam disappeared WITHOUT legislation that mean it could no longer be used (economics, efficiency and output were the big drivers).  The petrol engine is likely to be legislated out of existence.  The worst polluting petrol cars (ie with older style engines) I think will likely be the first targetted, with heavy restrictions placed on their use.  Ultimately when petrol is phased out altogether classic car owners at the time will have the choice of either converting their car to an EV, keeping the petrol engine and having sever usage restrictions, or consign their car to being a museum piece.

 

This final end state is still a long way off but the signals coming from a lot of countries on new vehicle manufacturing legislation (and from manufacturers themselves) suggest that we are in the unique position of witnessing the start of a massive shift.  Think steam to internal combustion, horse to motor car etc.

 

Couple this with driverless technology advances and the change will be substantial !  Not sure if there would be a vinyl record like re-surgence with those factors in.

[gav240z]

Steam is probably the closest parallel we can draw with one important difference - as far as I know steam disappeared WITHOUT legislation that mean it could no longer be used (economics, efficiency and output were the big drivers).  The petrol engine is likely to be legislated out of existence.  The worst polluting petrol cars (ie with older style engines) I think will likely be the first targetted, with heavy restrictions placed on their use.  Ultimately when petrol is phased out altogether classic car owners at the time will have the choice of either converting their car to an EV, keeping the petrol engine and having sever usage restrictions, or consign their car to being a museum piece.

 

What is interesting though if you watch the full presentation is that I don't think it will even take legislation to convince people to move away from Internal Combustion Engines, it will happen through sheer economics. The average running cost of an ICE based car is around $10k per year. Where as the biggest cost associated with an EV is the cost of tyres and in most cases you replace them every 5 years or so.

 

He also discusses solar panels, battery storage etc.. and how that will undermine typical power supply etc..

 

I think the market for classic cars in future will be either a carbon based credit scheme or limited usage like historic plates are now OR you'll see owners convert to EV. In fact in the presentation he shows how an engineer in San Francisco was able to convert his own vehicle to self driving and actually made software open source to allow others to do the same.

 

Therefore I see a time where engine swaps will be all about EV conversion and self driving and less so about fuel injection, big turbo's etc..

[potter260]

http://www.speedhunters.com/2017/09/e-type-zero-new-age-resto-blasphemy/

[gav240z]

Back in the year 2000 Unique Cars listed the 240z in the top 10 cars to buy NOW!

 

 

They were a little early, but prices were $2k for a rust bucket and $12k for a fully restored car (maybe $15k for a top example).

 

Times have changed a little.

 

Oh and 260z's were quoted as about half that value.

[260DET]

I think that 260's were quoted at about half the value of a 240Z simply because there was plenty of choice then. Now that supply has tightened up the market realises that except for the first models there is no crucial difference between the two.

 

On self drive cars, I find it hard to understand the apparent blase acceptance of the concept which I think is the thin edge of the wedge when humans will be delegated to the simple and debilitating role of pushing buttons. We are meant to do things, to respond and accomplish. Already we are becoming observers courtesy of the various forms of visual content available, sitting in a car that we are nominally but not in reality in control of would be foreign and unacceptable to me.

[gav240z]

 

Allen says a growing number of Asian buyers are focused on auctions in Australia, such as Chinese-Australian billionaire Peter Tseng who recently paid $2.45 million for the NSW numberplate 4.

“For them, it’s purely investment. They are seeing cars as commodities and investment items.”

http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/500000-ford-falcon-gtho-phase-iii-heads-15-million-luxury-car-auction/news-story/dc8a0871e86e348a063620179f90ab1e

 

 

First they ruined global housing markets, now their gonna ruin the classic car market. 

[aircobra]

This much for one of the world's crappiest cars?

https://www.gumtree.com.au/s-ad/carss-park/cars-vans-utes/1963-triumph-spitfire-mark-1-red-manual-convertible/1163139792?utm_source=criteo&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=LF-cars

Its a ser I, which is a Triumph Herald in drag

Surely any 2 seat Z has to be worth triple the $s

Also, even 4 door 60s Alfa are propping up for over 20

[gav240z]

http://www.caradvice.com.au/608108/ferrari-250-gt-lwb-california-sells-for-24-million/

 

Would love to have a Ferris Bueller's day off with this 1.

 

[aircobra]

Been driving the z for a couple of weeks and still reckon they're undervalued, even with the latest price rises

The main reason for that I think is that it has aged much better then  most 70s cars. Other then the E-type, Ferrari (not all), its pretty slim pickings. Lotus specfically went thru a tragic patch around that time

Once you add the performance and the reliability factor, what;s there not to like?

If I was the Nissan product development at the time, I would have defintitely upped the capacity to 3 litres, added one more carb and it would have been in striking distance of the e-type

But then it would have been more expensive and not such a huge hit

[gav240z]

I agree it's hard to beat an S30Z in terms of value for money with similar era cars.

 

There was the twin cam triple carb PS30 though and they did try an over 200 - 250hp version with bigger cams and carbs but had idle control issues and concerns over serviceability so scrapped the idea.

 

There was also consideration for a V8 but in the US they just didn't get feedback to state there was enough demand.

 

Having fitted Triples to my L28 240z, I reckon it's pretty awesome once you ditch the SU's, would have been a good option to have an L-series with Triples factory spec car.

 

Think they did look at it initially.

[260DET]

Agree that the S30 is still under valued, about 20 years ago having decided to get into performance sports cars I went through all 70's makes and models car by car looking at their specs and their potential. Ended up choosing between a 911 and a S30, they were the two stand outs with the S30 getting the nod as being a better all rounder with more potential. Still think that's true today.

[gav240z]

For those interested you can read more about the 250HP Triple Solex variation of the S30Z here.

 

http://www.lulu.com/au/en/shop/hitoshi-uemura/datsun-240z-engineering-development/paperback/product-22879948.html

 

I believe they did look at a Triple Solex/Mikuni set up for the L-series as a factory car, but for some reason the idea was vetoed. I haven't got the book with me so review it, but it's a good read.

[gav240z]

Interesting.

https://www.carsguide.com.au/oversteer/this-half-rejuvinated-alfa-is-more-special-than-it-looks-65776

 

 Not sure if this is the next trend?

 

[260DET]

I agree it's hard to beat an S30Z in terms of value for money with similar era cars.

 

There was the twin cam triple carb PS30 though and they did try an over 200 - 250hp version with bigger cams and carbs but had idle control issues and concerns over serviceability so scrapped the idea.

 

There was also consideration for a V8 but in the US they just didn't get feedback to state there was enough demand.

 

Having fitted Triples to my L28 240z, I reckon it's pretty awesome once you ditch the SU's, would have been a good option to have an L-series with Triples factory spec car.

 

Think they did look at it initially.

 

Interesting, sounds like in reality Nissan got cold feet on improving the S30's performance, a decent V8 would have been sensational and would have been a big seller in the US despite their excuse.

[d3c0y]

They didn't have a decent V8 though which I imagine was probably the main reason.

[gav240z]

But also in my mind why build V8s if customer demand isn't there? And you're selling S30z's by the truck load? Remember they also considered a 4 cylinder version with an L16 which they didn't build in the end either.

 

It's possible the V8 would have sold well, but Nissan was busy enough turning out 6 cylinder versions with no shortage of demand.

 

I still think a performance package with Triple Solex carbs would have been a really nice spec to bring to market.

[260DET]

At that time Nissan had the four litre 195hp V8 used in the President, don't know what it was like. Didn't a US maker fit V8's to S30's and sell them as new cars? While at the time we were more used to straight 6's Murricans loved their V8's but any performance version would have been good. The S30's success must have come as a bit of a shock to Nissan seems to me like conservatism kicked in then.

[gav240z]

The Scarabs had V8 conversions.

http://datsunforum.com/the-scarab-legend-the-original-hybrid-datsun-z/

 

Any reason why these sold "as new" cars don't qualify for historic racing here in Australia?

[Enzo]

Hi Guys,

Some of the younger guys on here probably won't remember the Opec oil embargos of the early 1970's. Oil prices had been going up since about 1971 and Nissian probably looked at the world market and decided to stick with the L6 because it was a reliable fuel efficient car of the time. In 1973 Egypt and Syria launched military attacks against Israel ( Yom Kippur War ). Six days later America started supplying military aid and arms to Israel. The Arab countries didn't like this and stopped supplying oil to countries like America, Canada, Great Britain etc. (Western countries).

American went through a crisis with the big V8 gas guzzlers, where service stations could only supply limited amounts of fuel per customer. The small car market started to take off. European and Japanese cars became more popular. It was probably advantageous to Nissan to stick with the smaller engine till things settled down. By 1974 the oil crisis was over and the Scarabs with the V8 engines became popular in 1976. I have attached an oil price graph.

I have vague memories of fuel in Australia at the time being available to cars on an odd and even basis going on the last number on the number plate. (Odds one day, Even the next). If you ran out, hard bickies.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Enzo

[aircobra]

now, its easy to be smart in hindsight and marketing and customer segmentation has moved on in the last 50 years or so.
this would be the layout that would have worked around the globe, with very little development cost

1. standard L24 - move along, nothing to see, economy version, fast enough to see off the competition of the day eg MGs, Triumphs. I find the 6 cylinder MGC a particularly humorous effort, even for the day

2. mid range - increase to 2.8 fit triple SUs. This would have been within reach of the e-type ( next level competition)

3.A introduce the twin head cam on top of the L28 - which they didn't do until the 80s. More $s

3.B one with the president  4L Y40  v8 197 hp/323 nm - for a beefy premium, this could have been the performance leader. the ex prince 6 was never going to cut the mustard and looking over the blueprints, it looks like an expensive to produce engine.
with the v8, this would have been the queen-killer, ballpark with the e-type, mustangs and corvettes
For this version, I would add discs at the back and the larger 260-size brake booster.
And now would be the time to beef up the shell eg ,longer frame rails, thicker sheetmetal on the rear pillars


this is the route that ford have done with the current mustangs, although they only 3 flavours - the 4 cyl, the V8 and the hot V8

So Enzo - #1 is the answer to the oil crisis problem

[gav240z]

3.A introduce the twin head cam on top of the L28 - which they didn't do until the 80s. More $s

 

That was an O.S Giken effort and nothing to do with Nissan. Nissan produced the cross flow LY heads though for the L-series. Which later would be the template for the RB30 SOHC engine.

 

The 4 cylinder L-series got the LZ configuration LZ20B which was a twin cam motor and very exotic. That was a factory effort.

 

 

3.B one with the president  4L Y40  v8 197 hp/323 nm - for a beefy premium, this could have been the performance leader. the ex prince 6 was never going to cut the mustard and looking over the blueprints, it looks like an expensive to produce engine.

 

Why was the Prince 6 never going to cut the mustard? The S20 motor that was derived from the Prince GR8 engine was very capable and responsible for the C10 GTRs winning many races. Not to mention Prince R380 was able to defeat Porsche's on more than 1 occasion.

 

I think people underestimate how special these engines or cars were for the time period. A PS30-SB configured with the right cams, diff, light weight features would have been a very quick car for it's time. Since each car (Z432-R) was different it's hard to pin down it's performance metrics, but I'd imagine they could have been quicker than Phase 3 Falcon's.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_XY_Falcon_GT#GTHO_Phase_III

 

Which everyone seems to covet no end... but really just a big V8 in an average chassis. Great in a straight line, not so good in the twisties.

 

I dunno, I think the S20 sounds amazeballs at high RPM and it doesn't look slow either!

[hmd]

The Scarabs had V8 conversions.

http://datsunforum.com/the-scarab-legend-the-original-hybrid-datsun-z/

 

Any reason why these sold "as new" cars don't qualify for historic racing here in Australia?

You buy a new car from the factory then bring it to some crowd to put a v8 in? how's that a factory car from Datsun?

[1600dave]

You know what would have really made them a success in the day ?

 

Bung an extra foot into the wheelbase, add a rear seat, soften them up all round and fit emissions carbs.

 

Oh, that's right, that's what they did with the 260Z 2+2 which then proved to be very successful sales-wise......

 

What the classic enthusiast market wants in 2018 as opposed to what the new car buyer market wanted in the 1970's are two completely different things.

 

IMHO, stuff like the S20 / GR8 engine, triple carbs, LSD, right cams, lightweight features, V8 engine, etc, etc, just mean you're moving away from the very idea of the "sports car for the masses" that made the zeds such a success.

Edited January 3, 2018 by 1600dave