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#81 Grandad

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Posted 24 October 2015 - 02:43 AM

LIES DAMN LIES AND STATISTICS

 

When I was living in Sydney and playing with MGBs, a good friend explained his thoery of the 40 year car rule, that rule states that young (mostly male) impressional addolessants lust after the cult cars of the day that they can't afford they then become immersed in carreer, business and raising a family before years later findng themselves in a position to indulge their childhood fantacy by which time the target car is in it's 40s, my lust car was an MGTC because I first drove one at age 14 and yes I did eventually own a 40 year old one but it was a dismantled basket case that I didn't bother to restore.

 

The 40 year rule clearly applies to the Falcon GT, they have had spectacular price appreciation but as they are a domestic Australian car with limited exports I believe their future appreciation is limited as the target buyer group now age and die off leaving behind a basic sedan car, albeit with a racing history, that was initially designed as a police persuit car before finding it's way into a Fairmont body.

 

The 40 year rule also applies to the Zed but it has not had anything like the same price appreciation to date but being a global car my guess is Zeds will leave Falcon GTs behind over time.

 

So much for the LIES now here come some interesting STATISTICS.

 

If you were in the market for a go fast car in the 70s, here's the price comparison between Falcon GT and Datsun Z according to Redbook.

 

1970

Falcon XW GT Man      $4625.00

Falcon XW GTHO Man $4830.00

Datsun 240Z Man         $4567.00

 

1971

Falcon XY GT Man       $4625.00

Falcon XY GTHO Man  $5302.00

Datsun 240Z Man         $4666.00

 

1978

Falcon Cobra Special XC 2+2 Man   $10100.00

Datsun 260Z Man Coup                    $11525.00

Datsun 260Z Man 2+2                      $12500.00

 

I'm not sure that it's fair to compare a family sedan with a sports coupe but it's interesting to see not only how the government of the day protected local manufacturing but also if the Zed is to regain price parity, it has a bright future.


Edited by TT Aero, 24 October 2015 - 02:51 AM.


#82 EJ101

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Posted 24 October 2015 - 06:10 AM

There was only a handful of S30z's and in particular 240z's to start with in Australia anyway. I'm surprised prices took this long to take off if I'm honest. I'd say you can still get what you want, but you have to look at importing from the US. Which has its own risks / rewards. Finding a car like you describe is very hard, I'd say you're better off building it, I know you say you don't want to spend hours working on it, but as Mick Jagger says "You can't always get what you want".

 

The 2+2 is also an option, cheaper and easier to find. I don't know why people overlook them to be honest. They look better than Z31s and Z32's in my opinion, not to mention being easier to maintain mechanically, cheaper to insure and cheaper on reg if going for Classic / Historic..

 

I wouldn't write off a 2+2 unless you have seen it in person. Photos don't always translate well.

 

Or what about an early RX-7? In my opinion still very under-valued.

Example:

http://bringatrailer...-rx-7-gsl-se-2/

 

Although I'm more partial to the early ones (series 1) with the earlier style dashboard. 13B Turbo in them and they would be weapon!

 yeah I know you can't always get what you want. That's the problem. I suppose the real point was that 1.5 - 2 years ago I could have got what I wanted for $15k now I'd need $30k. If I only I had a crystal ball.

I've seen 2+2's in the flesh and they have no appeal to me, in any series.

S1 to S3 RX-7's probably not a bad option. Great little car.



#83 chris240

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Posted 24 October 2015 - 06:53 AM

Last weekend from a market stall, i bought 2 copies of unique cars magazine from 1991.
What the heck was I thinking back then ! Arrrrrgh !!

#84 gav240z

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Posted 28 November 2015 - 04:14 PM

I still believe that Classic Car values are tied to other asset bubbles like housing.

 

This is a good article.

http://www.executive...ssic-car-gkxtuj

 

Whichever index you use, there are signs car collectors may be starting to take their foot off the accelerator: This year, the percentage of cars selling at auction has fallen. Cars with an interesting, important, or even quirky history still sell, says James Knight, who heads the motoring department at Bonhams. But at Bonhams's auction at this year's Goodwood Revival, several multi-million-pound Ferraris and Jaguars failed to find buyers. For more run-of-the-mill specimens ("the sort of cars you can buy any weekend"), Knight says, "we are seeing it become more of a buyer's market."



#85 d3c0y

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Posted 30 November 2015 - 07:32 AM

Finding a car like you describe is very hard, I'd say you're better off building it, I know you say you don't want to spend hours working on it, but as Mick Jagger says "You can't always get what you want".

 

I haven't seen many quality restorations that don't sell for more than it would cost to build the car. I think the break even point for a zed with a hot motor, suspension, brakes etc is still around the $50k point. That is still generally the top end of the market at the moment. People just aren't realistic about what the overall cost of restoring one of these things PROPERLY is. If you want half baked car with average to ok paint, then that is a different story.


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#86 gav240z

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Posted 30 November 2015 - 09:38 AM

I don't disagree with that, I think most people (myself included) are a bit delusional about the exact costs. I actually don't want to know, because if I do I'll never get them done. I'd rather be a bit naive about it and not tally up every little expense and just try and enjoy the process as much as the result.

 

However I do think that a top end well restored 240z will get the right money if the seller is willing to wait for the right buyer, but generally speaking cars like that change hands privately and the sum is not disclosed. We also don't see cars like that very often.. so it's hard to put a figure on the sale of such a car.

 

I can tell you that in Japan $50K AUD is not the top end of the market for a good S30Z. 


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#87 hmd

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Posted 30 November 2015 - 09:49 AM

I don't disagree with that, I think most people (myself included) are a bit delusional about the exact costs. I actually don't want to know,

 

I used to keep a spreadsheet of what I spent on my race cars.

But now I just want to be 'ignorant' about the cost.



#88 gav240z

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Posted 04 December 2015 - 04:36 PM

Should you invest in classic cars?

 

http://www.bloomberg...good-investment



#89 gturner008

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Posted 04 December 2015 - 08:06 PM

Interesting article

Here in UK certain cars have shot up in price the last 4 years. 911, Golf mk1 gti, Lotus Elan, Ferarri, 240z, E type, BMW evo. It is real, probably doubling in last 3 years. Can I continue? Doubt it. Levelling off I think.

But demand still outstrips supply. The best of a small portfolio of makes/models will stay strong. Others mat decline. That's my view.

#90 Patch

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 01:14 PM

Not sure if this link has been posted before or if this is the right spot for it.
http://www.thedrive....y-a-datsun-240z



#91 gav240z

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 03:16 PM

Not sure if this link has been posted before or if this is the right spot for it.
http://www.thedrive....y-a-datsun-240z

 

A very North American centric view of the S30z market. No mention of the Fairlady Z's or some of the more unique variations. But on the positive I guess it just helps build awareness of the marque.



#92 PB260Z

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Posted 30 January 2016 - 05:29 PM

But on the positive I guess it just helps build awareness of the marque.

Now that I am actually have my Z on the road, I am amazed at how many people recognize and comment on it :)



#93 gav240z

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Posted 01 February 2016 - 05:18 PM



#94 PB260Z

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Posted 01 February 2016 - 08:22 PM

Quote Lisa Wilkinson "No Datsun 180B - a lot of holes in that list"

But seriously, probably showing my age but have driven a couple of those and had the opportunity to purchase before the boom in prices - but didn't.

Edited by PB260Z, 01 February 2016 - 08:22 PM.


#95 gav240z

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Posted 09 February 2016 - 02:43 PM

Classic car market downturn?

 

http://video.cnbc.co...ideo=3000490673

 

Here is a list of cars.

http://www.goodingco...ealized/?cat=40

 

If you click into them you can see a lot of cars for lower than their estimated ranges.



#96 positivetennis

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Posted 14 February 2016 - 07:02 AM

I think with house prices, we need to look at the economic drivers of Australia currently. There has been a definite shift in Australia from mining and manufacturing sectors to the services based industry of education and tourism. This has seen WA, NT and to some degree SA have stagnant and decreasing prices, whereas Sydney and Melbourne have had huge increases in prices in the last 2 years, with Brisbane starting to see growth in 2016. The other areas that have suffered in Australia has been regional country towns, particularly the ones that don't have diverse economies. With the many job opportunities in Sydney and Melbourne, there has been a flow of people emigrating here from the other states and you can compound this with overseas Chinese investors for sure. The other thing to look at is lifestyle and convenience, and what we are seeing is the rise in coastal and middle to inner ring suburbs becoming very desirable due to café/beach lifestyle and easy travelling times to work becoming a factor. As a result of all this, the doubling of house prices is not constant, because there are many different markets and market cycles in Australia.

So this is my view of real estate.

 

Now with z cars. I think the market for these cars will I think be determined by lifestyle trends and fashions of future demographics. This can be very hard to predict as Government policies and what manufacturers come up with will have an influence. For example in NSW there is talk of allowing customers in 2018 to import there own cars from anywhere is the world and that may affect values of some cars. A base 911 for 220k currently sells in other parts of the world for 150k. If we have a look at Nissan at the moment I get the impression that they are not sure when and what they will release to replace the 370z. Imagine if they decide to release a beautifully styled car car similar to a 240z which is electric and will get you 0-100 in 4 seconds and sell for 40k, something like that could have some influence the market.

The 240z is definitely a museum piece of Japanese automobile history that is now out of reach of many buyers (Unless our $ goes up again and you import from the US) and I think as it continually gets older many classic car people may start to look at things such as value  for money and certain modern features like fuel injection and air conditioning as well as comfort and luxury in deciding whether to buy something or not. I think the 280zx is an interesting case in point. Its a car that has the 240z retro look, yet it had many features that were ahead of its time and you could probably still buy one now at a good price and drive it daily. On the other hand if you don't like the 280zx but want a 260z 2 by 2 you could get one and modernise it.


Edited by positivetennis, 14 February 2016 - 07:03 AM.


#97 gav240z

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Posted 30 April 2016 - 12:30 AM

Rather than start a new thread I thought this would be the best place for it.

 

http://petrolicious....ve-classic-cars

 

 

 

In most cases, classic cars are rubbish. As James May once said, if they were any good, they’d still be made. Modern cars are faster, better handling, more reliable, more comfortable, cleaner, safer, more economical, and mostly cheaper to purchase, too. Basically, they’re better in just about every way. Yet despite this, the clearly inferior classic car not only still exists, but is positively thriving these days. Why?

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#98 260DET

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Posted 03 May 2016 - 08:15 AM

Rather than start a new thread I thought this would be the best place for it.

 

http://petrolicious....ve-classic-cars

 

Interesting but  "First, there’s the design of the car itself. Classic cars were created very much in an analogue world where designers used pencil and paper to create elegant shapes and flowing lines that would just not be possible on the computer-based design software used by modern car designers." 



#99 smugley

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Posted 03 May 2016 - 10:10 AM

Interesting but  "First, there’s the design of the car itself. Classic cars were created very much in an analogue world where designers used pencil and paper to create elegant shapes and flowing lines that would just not be possible on the computer-based design software used by modern car designers." [/size]


You obviously have no idea about the modern software used in todays Auto industry

#100 260DET

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Posted 03 May 2016 - 10:25 AM

No I don't but cars with "elegant shapes and flowing lines" are still being designed today so QED.






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